Sheldon Silver OutFoxes Cuomo And Sticks Cuomo With The Future Blame For Revenue Shortfalls And Default/Bankruptcy

  
New York's budget is a fool's delight.

   The Cuomo Budget process and its Committees and teams were all a big farce, because Cuomo operatives prepared the outcomes and the committees were left with a rubber stamp. "Add Common Cause to the list of organizations unhappy with the about-to-be-completed 2011-12 budget. Rather than the cuts, they are upset about the level of secrecy involved in crafting the spending plan, which appears to be a replay of the time-tested “three men in a (closed door) room” method.
      "Localities were quick to knock the first report ... from Mandate Relief Redesign Team, saying it falls short of the reforms needed. ...Gov. Andrew Cuomo ... is seeking to cap the growth in property taxes to 2 percent a year. Governments and schools said they would be hard-pressed to abide by the cap without having some state requirements removed."   "What irked some on the 23-member panel was that while they had discussions with Cuomo's staff about the final version of the report, they only saw it minutes before it was released publicly."  Suffolk County's Steve Levy said Cuomo's team report was 78 pages of nothing.

        This was a temporary victory for Cuomo, but disaster is ahead, because the revenue side of the budget is a farce.   "The new governor holds the commanding heights,” said Robert B. Ward, deputy director of the Rockefeller Institute, a research center. “The role for the Legislature often is to wait out a governor — and certainly the speaker has proven he’s a master of that."    Was Assembly Speaker Sheldon a sly fox who knew Cuomo now had responsibility for the budget and the phony revenue predictions?   "Mr. Silver [had]explained, it would be the widely reviled Legislature — not the popular governor — that would be blamed [if a budget wasn't passed]."   Didn't Silver responsibly want more taxes?

     Local schools are announcing layoffs in response to budget cuts.  A sample of schools follow.
Beekmantown School layoffs
Saranac Central School District has no reserves and layoffs needed
Ausable Central School district has low reserves and layoffs will be needed
Cohoes City school district proposes layoffs
       And these unemployed workers won't pay State income taxes (reduces Income Tax revenues) and also drains State coffers (unbudgeted expenditures for benefits), because NY State can't borrow its share of unemployment expenses from the federal government as it did in 2010. Worse still many local districts have to layoff more workers because they don't save the entire cost of wages paid, because many must still pay the full cost of unemployment benefits, because they use the benefit reimbursement plan instead of making regular unemployment contributions (in other words, they paid nothing until a worker is laid off and then they pay the full benefits)
"The Benefit Reimbursement program lets employers reimburse the Unemployment Insurance Fund for benefits paid to their former employees in place of paying on a tax rated basis.  The following groups that are tax exempt under Section 501 (c) (3) of the Internal Revenue Code qualify for this option:    Nonprofit organizations organized and run only for:  religious, charitable, scientific,  literary or educational purposes and Government entities."
This same unemployment benefit (unbudgeted expenditure) payment will affect any New York State layoffs Cuomo plans, because the promised savings will have to be reduced by the full cost of all unemployment benefits paid.

   And NY Counties will follow with more layoffs because of Cuomo's pass down of a 9.4% increase in Medicaid County expense which is the largest expenditure for Counties and the failure of his Mandate Relief Team.   Things get worse because a Pension Tsunami is going to hit California and New York.  New York State has an absurd assumption that it earns 7.5% on its pension funds when the real rate was 1.1% for the past five years.     This will effect New York's credit rating and lending rates.

Meanwhile, as inflation threatens and gas and fuel prices rise 100%,  will Cuomo get more money by borrowing when New York is all ready the most indebted per person with $97,000 for a family of four?

The US Treasury can run out of cash, as can a State.

The Clever Fox Award goes to Sheldon Silver and the booby prize to?

Cuomo's Support Ads Will Backfire When Public Holds Him Responsible His Budget's Gigantic Deficit

      Andrew Cuomo has promised Hope and Change with his budget proposal promising not to raise taxes.   Meanwhile the Cost of Living hits a record and "[other] states will be cutting back services drastically this year at the very same time they are raising taxes in order to close enormous budget deficits and avoid a muni-bond defaults crisis."   
     And so, Andrew Cuomo is going to own his budget as his supporters outspend the opposition.   Cuomo's media shill, Fred Dicker, expects that Cuomo will win with short extender budgets while blaming a government shutdown on Sheldon Silver and the Legislature.  But Cuomo's and Dicker's $10 billion dollar projected deficit is just a gross underestimation.   More and more NY layoffs will continue to increase NY unemployment from the 9% reported in blog post below and Cuomo's fantasy revenue predictions will not materialize.
  

Recent News Reports are a sample of New York layoffs:
GM has more layoffs in NY.
Saranac Central School District has no reserves and layoffs needed
Ausable Central School district has low reserves and layoffs will be needed
Cohoes City school district proposes layoffs
Does Cuomo really believe voters who now have the highest Cost of Living ever are in the mode to locally vote to increase taxes to prevent school layoffs or that School Districts are awash in cash?

      Cuomo's problem, which Fred Dicker may not comprehend, is that tax revenues are going down and the $1 billion in the red already reported by Comptroller DiNapoli from this year has to be borrowed and all new layoffs further decrease his income tax revenues.  Also, tax revenues decrease on businesses producing less with less workers.  And Cuomo's fantasy prediction of the budget growth in tax revenues of $2.6 Billion dollars will disappear and have to be funded by more borrowing.   New York will just run out of cash to pay bills and allocate funds.  
See California I.O.U. link  and  a California I.O.U. below

See Cuomo's Credit Card Taken Away.

A Bankruptcy Chill Hits Cuomo Adding To Albany's Below Zero Freeze With NY Medicaid Excesses Unaddressed And 12,000 Jobs Lost

You know you're directly over the enemy, when the flack gets heavy.

   Bankruptcy has sent a chill up the spine of the true believers and media hacks for Andrew Cuomo and other Governors facing fiscal disaster.   The Business Insider's hacks have reported, "The Cheerleading For State Bankruptcies And Municipal Defaults Is Downright Ghoulish," and Business Insider offers the following 12 reasons why State finances won't go broke: (Reasons blue, comments red)

1. Outstanding muni debt remains within historical parameters.  What was the historical parameters before the mortgage collapse, or NYC before fiscal collapse, or stock market historical values before a crash or major devaluation?

2. Interest payments absorb less than 5 percent of current expenditures.   Not after interest rates triple or more and more borrowing is needed for pension contributions.   See example of Greece or Ireland.  Link

 3. Municipal bond default is extremely rare -- less than one-third of 1 percent.  European Counties were defaulting rarely, but now cash infusions and/or  the EU insuring their bonds is not extremely rare.   Link

4. There wasn't a bubble in muni bonds, nor any exotic derivatives.   There is insurance (a derivative) on some bonds.   Will a massive default also result in an insurance default?  Isn't the actuarial basis of the insurance based on very limited expected default?  Yes.   And, lots of litigation claiming deliberate unnecessary default as a reason not to pay said insurance will result and/or bankruptcy filing by such insurers.

5. Pensions were fully funded until they had to weather back-to-back recessions.   A big lie, check out California or NY. Link CA-1/2 trillion dollars pension shortfall    NY Link     Central NY Muni.

6. Anyone claiming there are $3 trillion in unfunded pension liabilities is ignore investment earnings -- which are the majority of returns.   Hey, dopey, check out NY's Madoff style promise of 7.5% Safe Return.    Link.http://cuomotarp.blogspot.com/2010/11/from-ponzi-to-madoff-to-hevesi-to.html   or this link to California's 1/2 trillion dollar unfunded liabilities

7. Pension funds average over 8 percent returns through a diversified portfolio. Why would they invest only in fixed income?  Get real, see NY's return for past 5 years was 01.1%.   Link.

8.  Municipalities devote only 3.8 percent of their budget to pension funding: A modest increase could solve most problems.  Is that due to the phony assumption of a 7.5% Safe Return on pension investments or the borrowing by workers to fund their pensions, so they don't realize the true amount they are contributing to their pensions? Link.

9. Pension plans are legally protected. Health benefits generally are not. 

 

Bye, bye, granny, it's for the good of the State.

10. In fact, most states WILL have to scale back health benefits -- but won't default on pensions or bonds.  But NY and Cuomo, if judged by his record of failures to prosecute Medicaid frauds as AG,  will make sure the massive overspending by NY on Medicare remains. Link 1 Link 2 Link 3.

What about that  $28 billion overspending on NY medicaid?  Link.

11. Municipalities have the next 30 years to remedy any pension shortfalls.  No, the money is missing now and present contributions must be many multiples of prior budgeted amounts.   Link
See #5, 6, 7 and 8 above.

12. Mass default doesn't seem likely, but austerity does.   This opinion uses word "mass" so as to leave some smaller number of States such 6 out of 50 states.   Link to Finance Bazaar.

     Andrew Cuomo must be waiting for a bankruptcy bailout because he isn't  cutting Medicaid to California levels and saving at least $28 Billion a year?  Oh, I forgot Cuomo recovered 0.6% of Medicaid fraud.

     Although the latest fraud is, "New York's seemingly endless cavalcade of corruption continues, with the Young Adult Institute National Institute for People with Disabilities Network and five of its current and former officers ordered to pay $18 million in civil damages under the False Claims Act," as usual the defendants aren't going to jail.   "The defendants will pay $7.2 million to the United States and the rest to New York - though YAI does not admit that it did anything wrong."
   Is this to be Cuomo's new ethical standard: Cheat, steal and if you get caught, you'll have to pay some of it back. Will this be equally applied to the ordinary criminal, not in a suit and without a fancy campaign contributing  lawyer?

    .Cuomo to cut 12,000 jobs.  Link 1 Link 2   But why must New York fund this Medicaid corruption with $28 Billion dollars and then face bankruptcy and 12,000 lost jobs?