Andrew Cuomo; A Drag Queen; And Dragging New York State Bankruptcy And NY Bond Devaluation Out Of The Closet

In God's schekels we trust, all others' schekels we weigh.  From a sign in an ancient Babylon Bazaar

   Welcome to the NY Finance Bazaar 

 This is your self check-out page where you weigh the future value of NY Bonds.   Will NY go bankrupt? You check which way the balance tips. 


     We'll take NY bondholders and NY residents to some of the stalls in the NY Finance Bazaar.

      Stall 1. The Supreme Court stall.  You may have thought bondholders were protected under US Law and Constitution?   But the US Supreme Court refused to follow the Constitution for Bondholders in these two recent offerings:

a. Supreme Court refused to hear a plea from bondholders and Indiana pension funds, representing $42.5 million of Chrysler's $6.9 billion in secured debt, who contended that their compensation was unfair at just 29 cents on every dollar of their bond value.
b .General Motors' (GM) bondholders asked to take 30 cents on the dollar in new bonds and GM shares in exchange for the their cash or their bonds lost 70% of their dollar value.

      Stall 2. The Illinois stall,  where, Illinois comptroller, Daniel W. Hynes, faces a figure in red of $5.01 billion.   “This is not some esoteric budget issue; we are not paying bills for absolutely essential services,” he says.  Illinois' dysfunctional political class refuses to pay the state’s bills of at least $12 billion (compare this to NY's $18 Billion projected deficit in NY).  There's a spectacularly underfunded Illinois pension system (compare this to NY's Comptroller claiming a unrealistic 7.5% Safe Pension Return on Investments),

      In re: Illinois; "States cannot go bankrupt, technically.  Legislators left the capital this month without deciding how to pay 26 percent of the state budget.  The governor proposes to borrow $3.5 billion to cover a year’s worth of pension payments, a step that would cost about $1 billion in interest."  We can see the future for NY in Illinois.

      Stall 3.  Historical bond trends are for sale:
"For two centuries, the bond market has reminded states that interest rates rise when they, like the  Greeks, the Spanish, and the Italians, spend many more dollars than they collect in tax revenues."
   If NY bond interest rates rise, the added yearly due interest will deplete NY's spending ability.

     Stall 4.  All the sackcloth and ashes you'll need:   Four states are likely to go bankrupt: California, New York, Illinois and Michigan

     Stall 5.  A Prophet is offering: Although there is no mechanism for states to go bankrupt, Congress could change that: This means we can expect a major push for federal funds to prop up insolvent state governments in 2011. This is where a legal mechanism for a State's bankruptcy needs to be created by Congress.

     Stall 6. Throw the ball in the right hole and win a prize:  Where will the new Republican House in the US Congress throw the ball?
 Hole a. Bailout four states to begin with,
or Hole b. Pass the bankruptcy law suggested in the article above in Stall 5?

     Stall 7. The Hope and More Hope stall with hallucinogenics for sale:  Do you believe Comptroller DiNapoli can get 7.5% Safe Return on NY pension investments?  (or Madoff has a bridge for Sale)

     Stall 8. Here are foreign bonds available with great yields:   The average yield for 10-year debt from Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy reached 7.57 percent today and that's for debt backed by Germany and not Geithner/Obama deficit spending.

     Stall 9.  Another Branch of the Hope and More Hope stall with stronger hallucinogenics for sale: Do you think NY's interest rate on bond offerings will stay at 3.357%?

     Stall 10. Strong espresso coffee served with tough love talk:  Knowing what the US Supreme Court did with GM bondholders, do you believe the Supreme Court will force NY to honor NY bonds at their full value or force NY State to honor pledges to pay certain bondholders before using the money for other purposes, or just offer pennies on the dollar value of existing NY bonds?  We can read the analysis of the NY Budget and Bond offering.

      Stall 11. This stall has snake-oil for sale and a "sexy" snake-charmer with a drag queen: 
The drag queen wasn't there, but her "sexiest male" snake-charmer, Andrew Cuomo, was.
"We like to imagine this is sort of how it happened with Andrew Cuomo. We've always imagined he was a, uh, dance man." 
  Well the dance man, Andrew, was still promising to charm at least one snake out of the Albany basket.
   Maybe, if we drop a schekel in his pot, at least one snake will come out of the basket.  Or maybe,  the basket is a closet and we ought check the sexual orientation of the snakes. (read the reports of Andrew's prior M.O. and snake-oil sales)

  Leaving the stink of the snake oil behind, we find the balance scale to check the weight of the schekels NY State is offering. 
Does the scale balance or tip?

      NY goes bankrupt?(Y)(N)

      NY Bondholders will lose over 50% of their bond value? (Y)(N)
      NY Pension Funds can earn 7.5% Safe return on their investments? (Y)(N) 
      Will Andrew Cuomo's "charm" fix NY Finances? (Y)(N)
      How will Fitch's, Moody's and Standard & Poor's finally valuate NY Bonds?

Junk?(Y)(N) or _____?