New York State Will Likely Default And Rating Agencies Will Be Liable If They Fail To Properly Rate NYS Bonds

Copy of letter sent August 16, 2011

To: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.,101 Federal Street, Suite 1900, Boston, MA 02110
Standard and Poors, 55 Water Street New York, New York 10041
Fitch's, One State Street Plaza,  New York, NY 10004
Dagong Global Credit Rating Co.,Ltd
29/F, Unit A, Eagle Run Plaza, No.26 Xiaoyun Road,Chaoyang District,Beijing, P.R.China 100125

Re: US Rating agencies will face a large liability for improper ratings for NY State Bonds. Default/bankruptcy coming shortly. Catastrophe in waiting: Average NYS non-financial sector income of $50,400 a yr. results in less net income than average NYS dole benefit of $42,000 a yr.


Dear Rating Agencies:
       How long do the rating agencies think this can continue in NY State?  While NY State pays the average public assistance person $42,000 a year in benefits according to Lou Dobbs's radio show on 8/15/2011, the average non-financial sector NY State income was $50,400.*  And NY State relies more heavily on personal income tax for its revenue than other States.*  When will the federal government cut off NY State's Medicaid program which is run as a fraud, where NY State mischarges the federal government $22 billion dollars to fund its non-medicaid State budget?  Andrew Cuomo's business friendly NY has fizzled.  Meanwhile, Andrew Cuomo failed to begin to change the NY Constitution to end unaffordable pension costs.

      "A word to the wise is sufficient."  The US based rating agencies will have a large liability, if NY State bonds are improperly rated.  The future possibility of repaying NY State bonds not backed by a dedicated revenue source is non-existent.  NY State bonds finance State agencies as well as State government.  Some bondholders, such as Thruway bonds or Dormitory bonds, receive first dibs on revenues, if the State doesn't pay on time.  Other bonds are backed by the full faith and credit of NY State without a dedicated revenue source.  But if the State doesn't have enough cash in revenue, how can it pay?

These are the details:
First, this is the text from NY State Constitution: §7. After July first, nineteen hundred forty, membership in any pension or retirement system of the state or of a civil division thereof shall be a contractual relationship, the benefits of which shall not be diminished or impaired. (Adopted by Constitutional Convention of 1938 and approved by vote of the people November 8, 1938.)

  Then, in regard retiree costs:
  1. Although, Chris Christie reformed pension and benefit costs in New Jersey, Andrew Cuomo failed to ask this session of the Legislature for a Constitutional Amendment to change the above clause which prohibits NYS from changing any retirement contractually promised benefits, such as Health Insurance and Pensions.  Such an amendment must first be passed by this and then the next legislative session and then finally approved by the voters. 
http://cuomotarp.blogspot.com/2011/08/rating-agencies-informed-as-new-york.html

    2. NY State has not funded its retiree health benefits which were part of State workers' contracts with NYS and are constitutionally protected.  NewYork Adds $56.3 Billion To Its Unfunded Liabilities

    3. NY State's pensions are a Madoff style Ponzi scheme where NYS promises a 7.5% "safe return" when that is impossible.  All the undeposited funds needed to properly fund the pension funds and the losses of up to $7.3 trillion dollars are liabilities of NYS.  Any higher taxes to fund this shortfall would create a stampede of taxpayers getting out of NY State..

Then in regard taxpayers

    4. Taxpayers are fleeing NYS at the largest rate in the USA.   Who'll repay the bonds?

    5. NY State has the highest local and State debt per person and the second highest taxes paid per person of any State but New Jersey.    New York Debt per person including local debt is at $24,195. For a family of four about $97,000.   Will NYS raise taxes even higher and borrow more?

    6. Andrew Cuomo will not attract business or its potential taxes to NYS because NYS has the next to lowest business friendly rating of all the States.   When NY businesses repay the $ 3.6 billion dollar Unemployment Insurance loan to the Federal government this November 2011, NYS will become a business pariah.

    7. What happens when the millions of NYS taxpaying residents earning the average non-financial $50,400 or less discover their net income is less than the average dole recipient's $42,000 a year?   Do they leave the State or go on the dole?

  Then, in regard State revenues:   
   8. The NY Comptroller predicts rising numbers of non-taxpayers in the NY State Medicaid system*.


   9. NY State funded 14% of its budget this year with one time funds that will not be available in future years.

   10. Andrew Cuomo's Budget director says, he has no ability to finance spending commitments already.  This was recorded at a 7/20/2011 hearing of Cuomo's Commission on Judicial Compensation: "We don't even have the ability to finance the spending commitment that are already in place, said Robert L. Megna."


    The Bottom Line:

• a rapidly rising NYS expenditure for retiree and others' benefits
• a reduced number of businesses in NYS paying taxes and paying workers
• more NYS Medicaid non-taxpayers
• taxpayers fleeing the State
• NY State will run out of cash from its diminishing revenue sources
• NY State either defaults or goes bankrupt if Congress enables State Bankruptcy by a new law
• a tax revolt when those millions earning the average non-financial income of $50,400 or less realize that the average NYS dole recipient receives $42,000 yr. in benefits

 And the US rating agencies would be sued by all the suckers still holding devalued and defaulted NYS bonds.   And Dagong may have protected foreign investors and exposed the hopeless finances in New York State.

Sincerely yours,

CuomoTARP.blogspot.com

*See Financial Condition Report for Fiscal Year 3/31/2010

P.S. Please access website for working links to all data.  

Rating Agencies Informed As New York State Pension Funds Have Estimated Losses of $7.3 Trillion Dollars

Letter:   August 11, 2011

To: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
101 Federal Street, Suite 1900
Boston, MA 02110
Standard and Poors
55 Water Street New York, New York 10041
Fitch's
One State Street Plaza,  New York, NY 10004

Re: Trillions in losses and fraudulent pension asset assumptions in New York State, also, New Jersey.  Potential civil and federal criminal liability

Dear Sirs: You are promising to report on States.  New York State is liable for its Pension funds' losses and underfunding.  This is to inform you that NY State Pension Funds have estimated losses of approximately $7.3 trillion dollars and NYS's assumption of a safe return of 7% can only be characterized as a fraud.  It is not possible for NYS to fund its Pension obligations and/or losses through taxes or by changes in employee contributions which are contractually determined, because of the NY State Constitutional Provision copied here:
   #7. After July first, nineteen hundred forty, membership in any pension or retirement system of the state or of a civil division thereof shall be a contractual relationship, the benefits of which shall not be diminished or impaired. (New. Adopted by Constitutional Convention of 1938 and approved by vote of the people November 8, 1938.) Note that Andrew Cuomo is making no efforts to amend the NY Constitution in regard pensions.

        In regard to New Jersey, it was reported that, "to justify an 8.25% interest assumption assets were in investments that could possibly generate that return so, as of May 31, 2011, the plan’s $74.7 billion was allocated 27% in domestic equity, 30% in bonds, 20% in international equity, and 17% in alternative investments.  With only about $300 million in employee contributions coming in over the last two months, while $1.3 billion in payouts left on top of this 10%+ investment drop the plan likely has about $65 billion this morning."   In New York State things are worse, because of NYS Constitutional restrictions on Pension Changes and the trillions of dollar size.

    The NYS Comptroller reports:
 The following table summarizes the market values for March 31, 2010 and 2009 (In Thousands):

Asset Type               3/31/2010 Market Value  %of total      
Domestic Equity            $ 51,495,373             38.9%           
International Equity          21,178,608             16.0
Private Equity                 12,799,735              9.7
Absolute Return Strategy   3,817,538              2.9 
Real Estate                       5,551,078              4.2
Core Fixed Income          33,726,066            25.4 
Mortgage Loans                   845,721             0.6
Short-term Investments     3,086,085             2.3

Total Investments        $ 132,500,204           100.0%

Market losses have exceeded 10% in both domestic and international equities with estimated losses of $7.3 trillion dollars for NYS's portfolio.   Real Estate is substantially decreasing in value in NYS.  Get a good laugh at the 119 page long list of funds held by NY State and ponder how the NY State Comptroller can keep tabs on such a large number of funds.

Now look at Comptroller's investment returns reported last in 2010

                    Based on Market Values as of March 31, 2010.
                               Annualized Rate of Return
                              1 Year        3 Years       5 Years        10 Years
Total Fund              25.87%        -1.68%         4.16%          3.75%
Domestic Equity      51.70         -4.10          2.20           0.52
International Equity  56.77         -5.00          5.52           2.72
Private Equity          11.61          2.40         12.82           8.56
Absolute Return
Strategy                 14.95         -0.44          3.29             —
Equity Real Estate  -27.77        -17.65         -0.11           9.56
Core Fixed Income   7.92          7.00          6.06           7.57
Treasury Inflation
Indexed Securities    5.01          5.75          4.34             —
                               
        The Core Fixed Income and Treasury Inflation Indexed investments cannot expect to earn anywhere near the 7% assumption.   In its latest action, the Federal Reserve has frozen interest rates for the next two years and 10 yr Federal returns would be for the next two years at 2.14%, not 7.0%.

   Bottom line is New York State has an estimated $7.3 trillion dollars in Pension losses and no possible way to fund them, nor to earn 7.0% safe return with 10 yr. Treasuries at 2.14%.  Please read my prior post New York State Rating Downgrade: Who'll Repay The Bonds As Taxpayers Flee? concluding with, Who'll repay the bonds?
  
   As you, the rating agencies, may note in the new law suit against Bank of America, there will be consequences for those not reporting truthfully.  Please also be aware of Federal Law Title 18 as to who may be charged in a federal criminal action.

TITLE 18 PART I CHAPTER 1 #2. Principals
Whoever commits an offense against the United States or aids, abets, counsels, commands, induces or procures its commission, is punishable as a principal.
Whoever willfully causes an act to be done which if directly performed by him or another would be an offense against the United States, is punishable as a principal.

Sincerely yours,

CuomoTARP.blogspot.com

P.S. Please access website for working links to all data. 

New York State Rating Downgrade: Who'll Repay The Bonds As Taxpayers Flee?

Who pays the bonds off, when the taxpayers flee.

     Did the media (including Fox News), the politicians of both parties and the media pundits lie to you that the US would/could default on its debt?   Alan Greenspan said on Sunday,""The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default."

  Are New York politicians or the sycophant New York media to be trusted?   Will New York debt be downgraded?  Unlike the federal government, New York can quickly default.

     Here's a buyer's guide to New York State bonds or more likely a seller's guide:
   
1.NY Businesses Howl At $21.25 Per Worker, While Cuomo's Budget Will Require An Additional $478 Per Worker In November.   

2.   New York State has the highest debt per person in the USA ($24,195) and the second highest taxes per person ($6,884).   Andrew Cuomo's Budget director says, he has no ability to finance spending commitments already.  This was recorded at a 7/20/2011 hearing of Cuomo's Commission on Judicial Compensation: "We don't even have the ability to finance the spending commitment that are already in place, said Robert L. Megna, who was speaking on behalf of Governor Andrew Cuomo, who appointed three of the commission's seven members."

3. Cuomo's New York Comes In Second To New Jersey For The Most Taxes Per Person.  New York's Taxes paid by residents as percentage of income are 12.1%   "The state [NY] has one of the highest state and local tax collections per capita, an average of $6,884.     According to the Census Bureau, the top ten counties in the U.S. with the highest property taxes as a percentage of home values are all in New York."

4. Rating Agencies Informed As Cuomo's Budget's Imagined $ 4.3 Billion In Revenue Increases Disappears

a. The Cuomo Business Friendly Bubble Burst, when NY was ranked 49th out of 50 States as Business Friendly.   While the Cuomo stooge at the NY Economic Development Agency described his own policy as "anyone proposing nano-scale technology in Syracuse should be taken out to the woodshed."

b. Cuomo's expected tax revenues took another dive into red ink with latest report.  "A gauge of manufacturing in New York State showed the sector unexpectedly contracted for the second month in a row as new orders worsened, while core inflation rose at its highest pace in three years."


c.  This business contraction affects the revenue increases which finance Cuomo's spending.  Cuomo had balanced his budget with imagined revenue increases and Cuomo used temporary sources for 14.7% of his budget revenue, such as, Federal stimulus money (threatened in present federal debt debate), "voluntary contributions" from NY Power Authority and other authorities (they'll charge you higher rates) and delaying paying NY State Income Tax refunds.

d. Cuomo's unrealized revenue fantasies reported by the Comptroller include:
    i. Personal Income tax receipts in 2011-2012 will increase $2.9 billion or 7.9% (but decreased employment reported)
    ii. User taxes and fees (sales and tobacco taxes)will increase $467 million or 3.3 % (but tobacco tax increase will fail link 1  link 2 and workers earning less or unemployed spend less)
   iii. Business taxes will increase $894 million or 12.3% (but business declines)
   iv. Payroll Tax will increase $63 million or 4.6%  (but, rising unemployment including State layoffs decrease payrolls)
  A budget shortfall of $4.3 billion dollars must be borrowed this year.


5.  New York Pension Books are Cooked

6. Cuomo has a "funds shift [that] would result in the use of state bond proceeds for payment of a portion of debt service on MTA revenue bonds."

7. Cuomo's budget used the "Madoff-like" assumption of a 7.5% safe return on pension investments. and continues to allow borrowing to fund contributions.

8. Cuomo failed to budget in the required repaying of the federal government for Medicaid frauds. This is minimally estimated at $6.4 billion.



Finally, 9. Who'll repay the bonds? New York Exodus As Tax Payers Flee At The Highest Rate In USA.    New York State businesses also will flee.   Small-business lobbyist Mike Durant noted, New York has "consistently ranked worst or in the top three worst in business climate. You can't suck every penny out of people and expect them to remain in New York."

cc: Moody's, Fitchs , Standard and Poors 

Rating Agencies Informed As Cuomo's Budget's Imagined $ 4.3 Billion In Revenue Increases Disappears

Charles Dickens advises Andrew Cuomo:  Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pound ought and six, result misery.


     Poor Andrew Cuomo praised Obama's economic policies this month, but Cuomo does not have Obama's ability to print money to accommodate revenue shortfalls.   When Cuomo's budget doesn't get enough revenue, he must borrow or increase taxes and those nasty bond purchasers will demand higher interest rates.

      First, The Cuomo Business Friendly Bubble Burst, when NY was ranked 49th out of 50 States as Business Friendly.   While the Cuomo stooge at the NY Economic Development Agency described his own policy as "anyone proposing nano-scale technology in Syracuse should be taken out to the woodshed."  Then, Cuomo's expected tax revenues took another dive into red ink with latest report.  "A gauge of manufacturing in New York State showed the sector unexpectedly contracted for the second month in a row as new orders worsened, while core inflation rose at its highest pace in three years."

       This business contraction affects the revenue increases which finance Cuomo's spending in his budget.  The Comptroller in his "Report on the State Fiscal Year 2011-2012" says a "structural imbalance" exists because general fund spending growth is still more than double projected revenue growth.  Cuomo had balanced his budget with imagined revenue increases and Cuomo used temporary sources for 14.7% of his budget revenue, such as, Federal stimulus money (threatened in present federal debt debate), "voluntary contributions" from NY Power Authority and other authorities (they'll charge you higher rates) and delaying paying NY State Income Tax refunds.  Cuomo's unrealized revenue fantasies reported by the Comptroller include:
1. Personal Income tax receipts in 2011-2012 will increase $2.9 billion or 7.9% (but, see decreased employment reported above)
2. User taxes and fees (sales and tobacco taxes)will increase $467 million or 3.3 % (but, see tobacco tax increase will fail link 1  link 2 and workers earning less or unemployed spend less)
3. Business taxes will increase $894 million or 12.3% (but, see above business results)
4. Payroll Tax will increase $63 million or 4.6%  (but, rising unemployment including State layoffs decrease payrolls)
The total fantasy budget's revenue increases of $4.3 billion dollars will not materialize.  A budget shortfall of $4.3 billion dollars must be borrowed this year.

     When Cuomo borrows this $4.3 billion, will the bond rating agencies downgrade NY debt and force up borrowing costs in the Cuomo budget, or will they understand that Cuomo meant well?  What will happen when those other things that Cuomo forgot to fund in his budget need borrowing to fund them, such as:
1.  New York Pension Books are Cooked
2  The Cuomo 2011-2012 Budget proposes to "eliminate a $10 billion dollar deficit without raising taxes or borrowing" and then is borrowing $5.6 Billion dollars.
3. Cuomo has a "funds shift [that] would result in the use of state bond proceeds for payment of a portion of debt service on MTA revenue bonds."
4. Cuomo's budget used the "Madoff-like" assumption of a 7.5% safe return on pension investments. and continues to allow borrowing to fund contributions.
5. Cuomo failed to budget in the required repaying of the federal government for Medicaid frauds. This is minimally estimated at $6.4 billion.
6. Cuomo forgot what happens when New York's bond rate rises and NY's borrowing costs  move up from $5.6 Billion $18.8 Billion. 

     All of the above ignores the Medicaid fraud by NY State, which Cuomo defended as NY Attorney General, and which, if Congress block grants Medicaid, Cuomo could immediately end.   See letters to Congress on this blog.  link 1     link 2

    The following letters were sent to the ratings agencies:
Letters by registered mail:  CuomoTARP.blogspot.com   July 18, 2011

To: Moody's Investors Service Inc.
101 Federal Street, Suite 1900
Boston, MA 02110

Standard And Poors
55 Water Street
New York, New York 10041

Fitch's
One State Street Plaza
New York, NY 10004

Re: protecting buyers of NY bonds and your potential liability.

Dear Sirs:
    Attached is a copy of the latest 7/18/2011 post on CuomoTarp.blogspot.com.    The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission established  by Congress had reported on page 25: "We conclude the failures of credit rating agencies were essential cogs in the wheel of financial destruction." You realize your potential liability, if this occurs with NY State Bonds.    There will be lots of angry NY State Bond Holders who will look for compensation for your scienter (knowing) neglect and/or malfeasance, if you fail to act appropriately.        
         NY Debt per person including local debt for a family of four is about $97,000 (the highest in the USA).    Bob Brinker already recommended seniors leave the high tax States.   You need to protect NY State Bondholders with truthful ratings

      Also consider the Letters to Congress on this blog dated July 12, 2011 and May 23, 2011 which show a proven moral hazard and criminality in NY State Government and the likelihood of financial fraud.

Sincerely yours,
CuomoTARP.blogspot.com

Note: all links are available on the CuomoTARP.blogspot.com website where a copy of this letter is posted.
Attached: Blog post dated July 18, 2011

P.S. Tomorrow's 7/19 post will concern more lack of fiscal irresponsibility by NY Government and its committees and the costs thereof which must be borrowed in this fiscal year.

Rating Agencies Need To Revalue New York Bonds To Avoid Liability

Gold hits $1,500.   A Creditor: One of a tribe of savages dwelling beyond the Financial Straits and dreaded for their desolating incursions. ~ from Ambrose Bierce's Dictionary


Letter by registered mail:  CuomoTARP.blogspot.com
April 19, 2011

To: Moody's Investors Service
175 Federal Street, Suite 501, Boston, MA 02110
Standard & Poors
55 Water Street New York, New York 10041
Fitch's
One State Street Plaza,  New York, NY 10004

 
Re: protecting buyers of NY bonds and your potential liability.

Dear Sirs:
         You have been sent a copy of Three Billion Dollar Medicaid Fraud By New York State dated April 13, 2011.    The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission established  by Congress reported on page 25: "We conclude the failures of credit rating agencies were essential cogs in the wheel of financial destruction."   You realize your potential liability, if this occurs with NY State Bonds.            

     Standard+Poor’s lowered its outlook for U.S. debt to “negative” from “stable,” and woke up Washington.  NY debt must follow.  Comptroller DiNapoli's cash report for end of March reported, "All Funds tax collections were $926.3 million below initial projections included in the SFY 2010-11 Enacted State Budget, but slightly above projections made March 3."    This is double talk, which means he knew on March 3, 2011 that the revenue predicted in our budget wasn't coming, so we revised our figures lower, so he could report we received more than expected.

   The rating agencies must properly rate NY bonds based on the above mentioned letter and
   1. Cuomo's budget expects more money in cigarette taxes, but that is dashed by expected crime wave of smuggled cigarettes. link 1  link 2
   2. The World new economic reality is reported in  Andrew Cuomo; A State Bankruptcy And NY Bond Devaluation  where factors outside of NY control the bond market for NY bonds. 
   3.  New York Pension Books are Cooked
   4. New York Bonds Are Down Rated Based On Cuomo's Budget because
a.  The Cuomo 2011-2012 Budget proposes to "eliminate a $10 billion dollar deficit without raising taxes or borrowing" and then is borrowing $5.6 Billion dollars.
b. Cuomo has a "funds shift [that] would result in the use of state bond proceeds for payment of a portion of debt service on MTA revenue bonds."
c. Cuomo's budget used the "Madoff-like" assumption of a 7.5% safe return on pension investments. and continues to allow borrowing to fund contributions.
d. Cuomo failed to budget in the required repaying of the federal government for Medicaid frauds. This is minimally estimated at $6.4 billion.
e. Cuomo forgot what happens when New York's bond rate rises and NY's borrowing costs will move up from $5.6 Billion $18.8 Billion.  
e. Cuomo forgot about repaying the Unemployment Insurance: State Trust Fund Loans of  $3.1 billion.   Cuomo must pass this on in higher unemployment contributions by New York Employers and watch the Cuomo Business Friendly New York fizzle. 
f.  Fitch Downgrade Added $2.99 Billion in Deficit To Andrew Cuomo's Budget Farce
g.New York has the highest State+local debt per person in USA at a total debt per person of $31,536 compared to USA debt per person of $44,805.
h. Andrew Cuomo's Hope For Increased Tax Revenues Was False  because he hasn't budgeted the State's payment of the entire unemployment and extended unemployment benefits of laid off workers, such as the 500 court employees which are just a beginning of NY State layoffs.  These unemployed will reduce Personal Income Tax receipts,User Taxes and Fees, and Business Taxes (larger unemployment reduces earnings from businesses)
i. New Yorkers paid $48 billion in property taxes in 2010 with the highest local property taxes in USA, 74% above national average.

       Bob Brinker recommends seniors leave the high tax States.   New York has the highest taxes.  Andrew Cuomo's Business Friendly Puff Pieces will Fizzle As Reality And Medicaid Block Grants Close In.
Who'll be left to repay the bonds? Please do your duty and protect buyers of New York Bonds with up-to-date ratings.

                                              Sincerely yours, 

                                              CuomoTARP.blogspot.com

Note: all links are available on the CuomoTARP.blogspot.com website where a copy of this letter is posted.
Attached:  Three Billion Dollar Medicaid Fraud By New York State In Cuomo Budget Sent To Congress For Oversight  dated April 13, 2011

New York Bonds Are Down Rated Based On Cuomo's Executive Budget

Rating the Cuomo Executive Budget for Bond Purchasers

  The Cuomo 2011-2012 Executive Budget is like fancy curtains placed in the window hiding a burnt out interior in the house.   First,  there is the new folly presented by Cuomo:
1. Cuomo expects government bureaucrats and committees could design programs to save money. (SAGE Spending and Government Efficiency, Medicaid Redesign Team, 10 regional Economic Development Councils, Right-sized Youth Detention into community-based programs, Mandate Relief Resign Team) Link to Committees.  Grade D

2. Cuomo in his first sentence proposes to "eliminate a $10 billion dollar deficit without raising taxes or borrowing" and then he is borrowing $5.6 Billion dollars.    Grade F

3. Cuomo says, "New York is number one in education spending and number 34 in results and number one in healthcare spending and number 21 in results."  Cuomo expects the same State workers running these programs will change their stripes, now that Cuomo is Governor?    Grade -Delusional/Incomplete

4. Cuomo has a creative "funds shift [that] would result in the use of state bond proceeds for payment of a portion of debt service on MTA revenue bonds."   Grade F

Then there is the Cuomo folly reported yesterday on this blog:

 5. Cuomo's budget will fail to deal with the elephant in the room and will not follow eight other State's models for laws and regulations which could produce at least  $29 billion in savings per year.  And Cuomo and his Medicaid Redesign Team  is filled with trough feeders.  Grade-Delusional/Incomplete

6. Cuomo's budget  used the "Madoff-like" pension assumptions of 7.5% safe return on pension investments. and continue to allow borrowing to fund contributions.     Grade F
 
7. Cuomo will fail to budget in the required repaying of the federal government for Medicaid frauds tolerated by New York.  This is minimally estimated at $6.4 billion needed to added to deficit or be funded.    Grade F

8. Cuomo reducing Medicaid waste and fraud is a joke, since Cuomo recovered only 0.6% of medicaid fraud while he was Attorney General.    Grade -Delusional/Incomplete

9. Cuomo forgot what happens when New York's bond rate rises?  and NY's borrowing costs will move up from $5.6 Billion to $18.8 Billion.       Grade D

10. Cuomo forgot about repaying the Unemployment Insurance: State Trust Fund Loans of  $3.1 billion.   Cuomo must pass this on in higher unemployment contributions by New York Employers and watch the Cuomo Business Friendly New York fizzle.     Grade F

11. Cuomo claims a $10 billion dollar deficit, when if he could add correctly he'd get $22.1 billion deficit,  without even counting the pension shortfall from the phony 7.5% safe return and the "Build America" funding losses.     Grade F


New York State Bonds will be rated overall Grade D- and the multiple delusional/incompletes show an impossibility of improvement.

     The good News is Moody's acts slowly on bonds.  Their downgrade of Egyptian Bonds reported on Monday, many days after any sane person would have.

      In further regard of Bond Rating Firms:  The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission established  by Congress and signed by the President Obama in May 2009 reported on page 25: "We conclude the failures of credit rating agencies were essential cogs in the wheel of financial destruction. The three credit rating agencies were key enablers of the financial meltdown. The mortgage-related securities at the heart of the crisis could not have been marketed and sold without their seal of approval. Investors relied on them, often blindly. In some cases, they were obligated to use them, or regulatory capital standards were hinged on them. This crisis could not have happened without the rating agencies." [link to full report 600+ pages]
You still have time to sell your New York Bonds before they are devalued.  Or, you can hold on to your bonds and then later join the class action suit against rating agencies to recover losses. 

While New York Pension Books Cook ,The Finger Points At New Jersey

NY's Warlocks Cooking the books in NY:
Double, double toil and trouble
Fire burn, and cauldron bubble. ~Shakespeare's MacBeth

 NY Comptroller, DiNapoli said, "Unlike New Jersey, we don’t ignore our pension fund obligations. While New York still faces significant fiscal challenges, our management of the pension fund has left us in a much better position than other states that have continuously neglected their pension fund obligations."

The Good News:   "Moody’s found that the states with the biggest total indebtedness included Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Jersey and Rhode Island."  "Other big states that have had trouble balancing their budgets lately, like New York and California, tended to fare better in the new rankings. That is because Moody’s counted only the unfunded portion of states’ pension obligations. New York and California have tended to put more money into their state pension funds over the years, so they have somewhat smaller shortfalls."

Now, the but:  "Pensions were considered “soft debt” and were considered separately from the bonds, using a different method.  'A more standard analysis would view both of these as liabilities that need to be paid and put stress on your operating budgets,' said Robert Kurtter, managing director for public finance at Moody’s."

Now, more buts and oh, gee:  "Moody’s is using the pension values reported by the states. The shortfalls reported by the states greatly understate the scale of the problem... The government method allows public pension funds to credit themselves for the investment income, and the contributions, that they expect to receive in the future. It has come under intense criticism since 2008 because the expected investment returns have not materialized."

Now, from this blog in November 2010: 

From Ponzi to Madoff to Hevesi to DiNapoli; New York Learns Anew About Bond Losses And A Phony Safe 7.5% Pension Return

      Madoff had promised safe returns of 10% before the economic recession began.
The SEC warns in its Ponzi Schemes – Frequently Asked Questions that Ponzi schemes share common characteristics:
          High investment returns with little or no risk
          Overly consistent returns.
    Link for Comptroller Di Napoli will reduce his hope to earn 8% percent a year to 7.5%.  Except for Madoff, who guarantees a 7.5 percent safe rate of return?  Or 7 percent?  Or 6 percent?  No junk bonds allowed.   NY's real rate of return was less than 4% for ten years.
Even worse, NY's return for past 5 years was 01.1%.   Link.

  Now more wild accounting:  Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli proposes for the state government and local governments a  pension “amortization” (i.e., borrowing) plan where the 7.5% rate won’t necessarily affect annual pension fund contributions, because they can borrow their higher payments from the pension fund. Only the Government could imagine being able to use your credit card to charge your credit card payment.
     And it gets better, "after a decade in which the New York State pension fund’s annual return on assets averaged less than half its [8%]target rate, the fund will need to jack up its taxpayer-funded contribution rates next year, Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli announced today."
That's you, the taxpayer, paying a 42% rise in your share (11.5% to 16.3%) 

Now what do you think Moody's reevaluation of NY debt will be when real world accounting is used?

Thank to Bernie Madoff for the recipes to cook the books.

Thanks for showing us how garbage budget data in means garbage budget data out.

The True Believers Chorus is readying its refrain, "If only Andrew Cuomo knew."

 C.C. Moody's, Fitch's, Standard & Poors

CuomoTARP Gives A Christmas Present To New York Bondholders

In God's schekels we trust, all others' schekels we weigh.  From a sign in an ancient Babylon Bazaar

  Trust in Cuomo's charisma?  CuomoTARP updates Financial data relevant to NY Finances and the value of New York State and New York Municipal Bonds. 
1.New York Unemployment rises to 8.3%.
2  Less employment means less taxes

   Trust in Obama/Geithner/Federal Reserve Bank?  Are you fooled by phony low inflation numbers, or do you know gas prices have risen since Obama took office from $1.80 per gallon to $3.31 per gallon (no link needed go to your local gas station).  This cost goes through to all other costs by raising the prices of any goods transported to stores.  
3. Food prices to increase 5% in December.
4. Treasuries rise and therefore NY Bond rates rise. 

  Did you miss the Handwriting on the Wall for NY Bondholders at Thanksgiving?
Mene:  Count your bond values now
 Mene:  Count your bond values after the credit rate rises, inflation increases and bond desirability decreases
  Tekel: Same as shekel or watch your money
   U-Pharsin;  Your bond values will be cut in half
Did you miss the Words of the Prophet to bondholders:
  Sell now and not cry later 

DO You think the Chinese stupid? 

What should you do with rising interest rates and holding bond funds or bonds?
   or what happens if federal rates rise on municipal or State bonds?

      Here's CuomoTARP's Christmas Gift to New York bondholders:

       Sell now and re-buy(?) after the NY interest rate doubles or goes even  higher; otherwise, you lose at least 50% of your bond fund's value.  

Andrew Cuomo; A Drag Queen; And Dragging New York State Bankruptcy And NY Bond Devaluation Out Of The Closet

In God's schekels we trust, all others' schekels we weigh.  From a sign in an ancient Babylon Bazaar

   Welcome to the NY Finance Bazaar 

 This is your self check-out page where you weigh the future value of NY Bonds.   Will NY go bankrupt? You check which way the balance tips. 


     We'll take NY bondholders and NY residents to some of the stalls in the NY Finance Bazaar.

      Stall 1. The Supreme Court stall.  You may have thought bondholders were protected under US Law and Constitution?   But the US Supreme Court refused to follow the Constitution for Bondholders in these two recent offerings:

a. Supreme Court refused to hear a plea from bondholders and Indiana pension funds, representing $42.5 million of Chrysler's $6.9 billion in secured debt, who contended that their compensation was unfair at just 29 cents on every dollar of their bond value.
b .General Motors' (GM) bondholders asked to take 30 cents on the dollar in new bonds and GM shares in exchange for the their cash or their bonds lost 70% of their dollar value.

      Stall 2. The Illinois stall,  where, Illinois comptroller, Daniel W. Hynes, faces a figure in red of $5.01 billion.   “This is not some esoteric budget issue; we are not paying bills for absolutely essential services,” he says.  Illinois' dysfunctional political class refuses to pay the state’s bills of at least $12 billion (compare this to NY's $18 Billion projected deficit in NY).  There's a spectacularly underfunded Illinois pension system (compare this to NY's Comptroller claiming a unrealistic 7.5% Safe Pension Return on Investments),

      In re: Illinois; "States cannot go bankrupt, technically.  Legislators left the capital this month without deciding how to pay 26 percent of the state budget.  The governor proposes to borrow $3.5 billion to cover a year’s worth of pension payments, a step that would cost about $1 billion in interest."  We can see the future for NY in Illinois.

      Stall 3.  Historical bond trends are for sale:
"For two centuries, the bond market has reminded states that interest rates rise when they, like the  Greeks, the Spanish, and the Italians, spend many more dollars than they collect in tax revenues."
   If NY bond interest rates rise, the added yearly due interest will deplete NY's spending ability.

     Stall 4.  All the sackcloth and ashes you'll need:   Four states are likely to go bankrupt: California, New York, Illinois and Michigan

     Stall 5.  A Prophet is offering: Although there is no mechanism for states to go bankrupt, Congress could change that: This means we can expect a major push for federal funds to prop up insolvent state governments in 2011. This is where a legal mechanism for a State's bankruptcy needs to be created by Congress.

     Stall 6. Throw the ball in the right hole and win a prize:  Where will the new Republican House in the US Congress throw the ball?
 Hole a. Bailout four states to begin with,
or Hole b. Pass the bankruptcy law suggested in the article above in Stall 5?

     Stall 7. The Hope and More Hope stall with hallucinogenics for sale:  Do you believe Comptroller DiNapoli can get 7.5% Safe Return on NY pension investments?  (or Madoff has a bridge for Sale)

     Stall 8. Here are foreign bonds available with great yields:   The average yield for 10-year debt from Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy reached 7.57 percent today and that's for debt backed by Germany and not Geithner/Obama deficit spending.

     Stall 9.  Another Branch of the Hope and More Hope stall with stronger hallucinogenics for sale: Do you think NY's interest rate on bond offerings will stay at 3.357%?

     Stall 10. Strong espresso coffee served with tough love talk:  Knowing what the US Supreme Court did with GM bondholders, do you believe the Supreme Court will force NY to honor NY bonds at their full value or force NY State to honor pledges to pay certain bondholders before using the money for other purposes, or just offer pennies on the dollar value of existing NY bonds?  We can read the analysis of the NY Budget and Bond offering.

      Stall 11. This stall has snake-oil for sale and a "sexy" snake-charmer with a drag queen: 
The drag queen wasn't there, but her "sexiest male" snake-charmer, Andrew Cuomo, was.
"We like to imagine this is sort of how it happened with Andrew Cuomo. We've always imagined he was a, uh, dance man." 
  Well the dance man, Andrew, was still promising to charm at least one snake out of the Albany basket.
   Maybe, if we drop a schekel in his pot, at least one snake will come out of the basket.  Or maybe,  the basket is a closet and we ought check the sexual orientation of the snakes. (read the reports of Andrew's prior M.O. and snake-oil sales)

  Leaving the stink of the snake oil behind, we find the balance scale to check the weight of the schekels NY State is offering. 
Does the scale balance or tip?

      NY goes bankrupt?(Y)(N)

      NY Bondholders will lose over 50% of their bond value? (Y)(N)
      NY Pension Funds can earn 7.5% Safe return on their investments? (Y)(N) 
      Will Andrew Cuomo's "charm" fix NY Finances? (Y)(N)
      How will Fitch's, Moody's and Standard & Poor's finally valuate NY Bonds?

Junk?(Y)(N) or _____? 

Part 2 Andrew Cuomo's Corruption Allowed $400 Million To Be Added to $1.2 Billion In NY Medicaid Fraud Which Must Be Refunded By NY State To Federal Government

Today's letters to Bond Rating Agencies concerning the post immediately below.

                                                       October 21, 2010
To:  Moody's Investors Service
175 Federal Street, Suite 501, Boston, MA 02110

Standard & Poors
55 Water Street New York, New York 10041

Fitch's
One State Street Plaza,  New York, NY 10004

re: POST: Andrew Cuomo's Corruption Allowed $400 Million To Be Added to $1.2 Billion In NY Medicaid Fraud Which Must Be Refunded By NY State To Federal Government 
and your potential liabilities

Dear Rating Agencies:
      This is to make you aware of the moral, financial and corruption hazard that was and is Andrew Cuomo and the disasterous effects on NY Bond values. You may not be aware of the Medicaid returns liability facing NY State and the costs of these Medicaid  frauds to NY Counties.   My blog CuomoTARP.blogspot.com describes liabilities to NY State for the return of Medicaid funding of $1.6 Billion dollars.  If you look at the links on the blog, you'll access original federal documents.
     Mr. Cuomo may be hoping to fool the people, but you do not want any liability imposed on you for ignoring these reported Medicaid liabilities that can be considered a small sample of a much larger problem when other NY Medicaid transactions will certainly be examined.
  "A word to the wise suffices."
            Sincerely, T. Finnan, CuomoTARP.blogspot.com

Cuomo's Silver Spoon Removed With Hard Knocks Behind The Finance Woodshed

The Cuomo apologists have dismissed the smoking gun of Cuomo's HUD press release with "he was well intentioned."  Some advice for Cuomo:  1. payday loans are not wise things; 2. you and who else expects income tax revenue to go up this year in NY;  and what happens if anticipated income tax revenue decreases?  So,now, what are Cuomo's well intentions for the following anticipated borrowings based only on anticipated income or to fund current outlays by NY State for the remainder of this year listed below:?

5/20/10       Local Government Assistance Bonds  $ 1/4 billion     borrow money for present outlays
5/26/10       Service contract Revenue                  $ 1/2+ billion    borrow money from future income
5/26/10       Personal Income Tax Revenue           $ 1/2- billion     borrow money expecting tax receipts
June 2010    Personal Income Tax Bonds              $ 1.2 billion      borrow money expecting tax receipts
Aug 2010     Personal Income Tax Bonds             $ 1/2- billion     borrow money expecting tax receipts
Aug 2010      Dormitory Revenue Bonds              $ 77.1 million    those students will cough it up
Sept 2010      Personal Income Tax Bonds          $ 1/2- billion     borrow money expecting tax receipts
Nov 2010      Personal Income Tax Bonds          $ 1.7 billion     after the election, so the suckers won't know

Does Cuomo expect income tax revenues to rise or remain constant to cover this projected borrowing or will the difference be made up by more General Obligation borrowing, which wasn't described in the above NY State Borrowings this year, but which is huge.

How is Cuomo responding to Sheldon Silver's millionaire's tax to cover shortfalls when that idea resulted in reduced tax revenues in Maryland and New Jersey . 

Did Cuomo fail in Federal Court to defend Gov. Paterson's one day furlough for State workers out of his incompetence or should we give him credit for a clever subterfuge to fool the voters that he and Paterson wanted to reduce expenses and stand up to the unions, but the Federal Court wouldn't let them.  (The subject of future blog and a definite problem for Cuomo if elected; is Cuomo going to ask the new AG to correct his earlier error and its resulting federal court precedent?)

Here's the finance lesson that was not included in Andrew's silver spoon childhood and his entitlement training;  and, that is painfully learned by many young people.

  Look at your credit card statement.   While your balance rises, you ignore the rising interest charged each month.  But, your income is decreasing and your expenditures are increasing.  This was no problem, because you just paid the minimum amount due each month, but, now, your interest charged approaches your minimum payment.  You've reached your credit limit and the bank wants a higher minimum payment and won't advance you more money for present expenditures.    You cry out to your parents, why is this happening to me; the bank's mean; help me; how can I live without my needed purchases; and you whine on.

The painful welcome behind the Finance Woodshed is received by Andrew and other such children to the "Brave New World of Responsible Finances."  Neither your parents nor the Chinese want to loan us money; they want a lot more for a bad risk.  And forget about the Greeks and Spaniards; they are looking for money also.   


Andrew, putting on the garb of a fiscal conservative to fool the suckers won't help.  Are going to ridicule Sheldon Silver's fiscal stupidity?   And, Andrew, what about the Working Family's nomination; are going to embrace the unions and Acorn and then tell us you're for reform and ending corruption?

And Andrew, brace yourself,  maybe, go home to your parents,  the bond rating agencies* will wise up to your (and Silver's) words and deeds; maybe before the election. 

Andrew, do you think, as governor, you can pull your TARP to cover up even more corruption and mishandled money?

*Standard & Poor’s,	Fitch,	Moody’s