Cuomo's Executive Budget's great hope is that fantasy tax revenue predictions will come true. We look at Cuomo's budget as analyzed by Comptroller Dinapoli below.
The Fantasy numbers are in blue and [Reality is in red]
Report on the State Fiscal Year 2011-12 Executive Budget by Comptroller DiNapoli is the text that follows:
The Executive Budget estimates that total All Funds receipts will decline in SFY 2011-12 by $1.7 billion, or 1.3 percent, over SFY 2010-11 to $132.9 billion. The decline can be attributed to the loss of federal stimulus funds receipts, which are expected to fall $5.8 billion, or 11.6 percent. This loss will be partially offset by growth in All Funds tax receipts, which are estimated to increase $4 billion, or 6.6 percent, to $64.8 billion. This increase is attributable to the economic recovery, the revenue actions passed last year and those proposed with the SFY 2011-12 Budget. Finally, All Funds miscellaneous receipts basically remain unchanged, growing by $80 million, or 0.3 percent.
Personal Income Tax
For SFY 2011-12, All Funds PIT receipts are forecast to increase by $2.6 billion, or 7.4 percent, over the prior year. The increase is attributable to the improving economy, higher refunds in SFY 2010-11, and the voluntary compliance initiative in the Executive Budget. Base tax receipts, which net out the $500 million in additional refunds in SFY 2010-11 and the elimination of the high income tax provisions in the fourth quarter of SFY 2011-12, are projected to grow by 11.4 percent. [More unemployed people mean less personal income taxes paid. Cuomo needs to borrow way in excess of another $3.6 billion dollars just to replace delusional tax revenue increases in the budget.]
User Taxes and Fees
For SFY 2011-12, All Funds consumption tax receipts are forecast to increase by $627 million, or 4.4 percent, over the prior year. The increase is mainly due to growth in the sales tax as well as cigarette and tobacco taxes. The sales tax is expected to increase by $437 million, or 3.8 percent, as the economy continues to improve, offset by the partial return of the clothing exemption. Cigarette taxes are forecast to increase by $165 million, or 10.2 percent, as the Executive expects to collect cigarette taxes sold on Indian reservations to non-Native Americans ($130 million). [Unemployed and under-employed have less money to spend and sales tax revenues may not rise. Black-Market Cigarettes - with higher cigarette taxes mean smuggling expected to increase and tax revenues actually go down. And Indians may win in their law suit for sovereign status.]
For SFY 2011-12, All Funds business tax receipts are forecast to increase by $705 million, or 9.2 percent. The increase is attributable to the improving economy and an expected increase in corporate profits of 6.2 percent. All of the business taxes are forecast to increase in SFY 2011-12. [Larger unemployment reduces workers and earnings from businesses - see Personal Income Taxes above.]
All Funds other tax receipts in SFY 2010-11, including the payroll tax, are forecast to increase $432 million, or 16.6 percent, over the prior year. This increase is attributable to growth in receipts from the estate tax ($216 million, or 25 percent), the payroll tax ($144.3 million, or 11.8 percent) and the real estate transfer tax ($73 million, or 14.8 percent). [Employment declines noted above will reduce payroll tax. Property sales prices are falling and this reduces real estate transfer tax. Estate tax revenues will decrease because investment portfolios values are decreasing and the values of real estate transferred by estates will also decline.]
When will Andrew Cuomo wake up and see his predicted budget revenues are daydreams?
P.S. Alert on a developing problem: Medicaid disaster looms as Obamacare will increase number of New York Medicaid recipients by 1,750,000 according to Comptroller DiNapoli in his above report.
Representative Anthony Weiner who wants to run for Mayor saw the light and maybe asking for a Obamacare waiver.